Benjamin -- that's not where the GFS was/ie showing development; it shows it elsewhere, in the NW Caribbean, moving across the eastern Gulf.

The GFS still hints at that system developing, which is more likely than not convective feedback. It apparently wants to spin something up later this week too -- something that shows up in the NAM as well because it uses the GFS for it's external grid and the northern Carib. is right along the extent of the NAM's grid -- but I'm not going to put much stock in anything down there right now. My earlier suspiscions were confirmed today by others -- they have changed something in the GFS with regards to the tropics this year -- and until we get a better handle on what it means, I'm willing to write most everything off for now.

There is a bare vortex in the Bay of Campeche now, but moving west against the upper flow and caught in the vicinity of a trough. Waters are warm, yeah, and this is sometimes how you get development...but there's nothing to suggest it is either likely or imminent right now. Too much shear, for one, and a fair amount of dry air to the north, for another. Chalk it up, for now, to something interesting to look at but of no real concern. It might well just be a convectively-induced vortex that was left behind by the convection to the east.