SteveinLA -- moisture's a pretty good shot, as mentioned before. This really isn't 94L, I don't believe; the old 94L is the feature to the east. A series of mid-level convective complexes have been forming in this region on-and-off for much of the past month, usually without any fanfare; thus far, this is just one of them.

A mid-grade tropical storm? Too much going on against it, I think. The upper low to the north is still there, with a shortwave trough rotating around it now (a short-term negative), currently between Cuba and the Yucutan. Any northward movement is going to quickly take it into a region of much stronger shear. If the disturbance in the East Pacific gets going, it might be close enough to draw away the energy from the system; despite that, there is the old 94L to the east of this one. I don't see a surface circulation present yet -- there is a pretty impressive mid-level circulation, though. Anything that gets going at the surface is going to take time, and I don't believe this thing has time on its side. There's too much land in the way of where it is headed and nothing really to keep it from moving ashore.

So, in essence, I'm writing off 94L...this (probably 95L in time) has a better shot, but I still wouldn't put it in the "likely" category.