you guys have already touched on the stuff i'm thinking.. mine isn't all that different. energy from the wave currently near 72w is entraining northwestward ahead of the upper low over florida, while the return flow around the surface ridge building near the east coast is banking moisture into the region from the atlantic. the result on a number of models is a quasi-tropical low that drifts up to the carolinas over the weekend. the exact character remains to be seen--it has clear mid-latitude and tropical triggers and will probably acquire at least a somewhat tropical look. dependent on when/how it changes in vertical structure the steering mechanisms will vary.. also the trough may be slower to retreat than models are calling for.
further south the rest of the wave is moving into an improving environment, depending again on how that upper low/trough weakens and lifts/splits. the newer gfs runs are finally starting to show the feature euro has been harping on, though not with the continuity of existance. there is already a convective flare ahead of the advancing wave near cape gracias a Dios (that's thanks to God, not thank you goodbye) at the nic/hon border.. with that look to it that makes us drool. a meso low there at the mid levels might actually be a legit trigger, as the low level easterlies are racing to the north but the flow is plodding out of the south as the westerly backing in the tropical pacific hooks around near central america. slim on the thing anyhow, but as the wave energy moves in and continues nw to the yucatan and gulf, it will be in a potentially improving environment and over some solid warm ssts.
so anyway, thats just a twist on the ideas clark and steve are juggling. the response clock that works out sometimes has a system ready 6-10 after beatriz got going.. that would be june 27-29... in time for the wave energy taking the southerly route. the atlantic low will have a mediocre environment and little time to get kicking, so more emphasis on the gulf going into early next week.
HF 0030z24june