Good post H/F.

Clark,

We're going to have to see because whatever resolves from the pattern won't be anything but speculation until Saturday or Sunday at the earliest. There are several elements that stand between now and possible development that need to be worked out.

If the ECMWF was right with it's low pressure off the Upper Texas Coast Tuesday or Wednesday, it's still not going to really do anything for another 48-72 hours - that is if anything besides a deep tropical surge pops. It had the impulse up near the Yucatan on Monday. If it has that look [tm - Lois Cane], we'll know it's going to at least take a shot at development. As far as the origins, I think the energy from the wave in the area interacting with the remnants of the surface trof, the upper/mid low moving across S. FL and the flow in the extreme western Caribbean is more the defined entity than what was depicted as 94L to begin with. I agree about the various mid-level features going off down there (most of it has been diurnal), but it's the wave (which is now intersecting) that's supplying the real kick.

At least we've got something to watch for a while.

Steve