The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook for 11:30 EDT today, indicates that there is some interest in the complex system evolving near the Bahamas.

There isn't a clear cut surface low, which would indicate tropical development; but the thunderstorms and turning in the atmosphere are becoming more pronounced.

This is referred to as Invest 94L, the in-and-out sort of disturbance which has been working its way north out of the Caribbean. It isn't purely tropical, as it consists of wave energy being drawn up around the upper low that is has hooked around Southern Florida.

Convection triggered on the flank of the low, the northward moving wave energy, and low level convergence from the easterly flow around the ridge to the north are keeping it an active, stormy area.

This area has a chance to develop. The National Hurricane Center has a tentative hurricane hunter reconnaissance aircraft flight scheduled for off the North Florida and Georgia coasts tomorrow.

Since the system is complex and of hybrid nature, NHC will be hesitant to classify it, so the chances of seeing a named system aren't what I'd call high. Nevertheless the weather along the North Florida, Georgia, and Carolina coasts should be rainy and breezy as the system approaches Saturday and Sunday. Given more time, perhaps three days I'd almost guarantee a named tropical system, but it doesn't have that long.

Elsewhere a small disturbance continues in the Western Caribbean, in a marginal development environment. The conditions there should improve as the upper trough begins to lift out and back away to the north. With a tropical wave moving through there is at least a passing interest for this area.

This disturbed weather should continue west and northwest and may be of interest in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. However, what forecast model support that did exist for it becoming active has become more attuned to Eastern Pacific development. It will also be close to or over land at times. Keep an eye on it anyway.

HF 1647z24june

Event Related Links:
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Static Model Plot of Wave near the Bahamas (94L) from South Florida Water management District
Animated Model Plot of Caribbean Disurbance (94L)