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I'm going with split wave development approach, which is not anything unheard of. Per TWDs a few days ago, the wave producing activity in the carribean was splitting and we really have two things to look at here. As per 1030 TWO, Carolina residents should monitor for the development of a possible STS or TS from the "Bahama low"...which is the northern piece. Review this link then see synoptic thinking below: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-wv-loop.html Down the road, the southern part of that old wave is leaving moisture in SW Carrib. Thunderstorms not as impressive, but activity is just hanging around down there. Furthermore and most importantly (and not just the ULL pulling north over and east of Florida), is the Upper Low over Southern Texas that is digging South. As the Upper low around florida moves north and the Texas low moves south, don't be surprised to see some ridging develop. As the Texas low continues to move south into Mexico and Western Gulf, this can create a classic development pattern for disturbances in the SW Carribean, which gradually work there way into the central and eastern gulf. On the weaker points...One may also want to note that moister upper and mid level air may also continue to enter the area down the road. |