HF...interestingly enough, the MM5 (and on some runs, the GFS) actually keeps that wave a trackable entity -- weak low -- into the central Atlantic. SSTs are well above average there -- marginally favorable across the entire basin S of 15N as of this week, which is the earliest I can remember -- and the subtropical jet has finally begun to move northward, now largely north of 20N.

That said, it'll likely still fizzle, as the warm waters out there are really shallow, but if it is able to hold together (in some way shape or form) to the central Atlantic, it'd meet much more favorable waters. Of course, it'd also meet a lot more shear (as of now), but that could change. The whole area between 15-23 or 25 N from the islands east to about 40W has some of the highest heat content values in the entire basin right now, even moreso than the NW Caribbean. All of it bodes for a quick start to the season, likely once the subtropical jet retreats a bit more and the waters near the coast warm up just a tad more.

We'll see if the MM5 and GFS are catching onto something with this...but alas, I'm off to D.C. for the next week. 94L isn't likely to amount to much -- shear is low but waters there are only marginal, with the baroclinic energy for the other part of the system likely winning out over everything else. The surge of tropical moisture will bring some rains to the southeast coast, but I don't think we'll see any development out of this. There is a weak low-level swirl -- probably not even a complete circulation, but a stretched out swirl -- removed to the west of the deepest convection SSE of Hatteras with perhaps a mid-level vortex on the northeast side of the deepest convection. Just don't see anything getting going there, and as mentioned in the first post -- time isn't on its side.