the 11:30 TWO is out, and nhc is giving us those typical lines of 'significant development is not expected' for the BOC system. this is, of course, since the system is close to land. no recon scheduled either, so the only way this thing will get a name is if a surface stations report strong enough winds. highest i've seen thus far has been 20kt. it does seem to be keeping to the lower rim of the BOC, probably due to landfall near or just south of tampico in 12 hrs or so.
i thought scott's call that this would potentially be an 'unnamed system' were premature the other day.. now i'm getting the feeling he may turn out right. nhc is suggesting it will play this one conservatively. i expected them to call it a TD at the hour, but as it's already being underrated i'm doubtful that it will ever be bret.
the wave that was approaching the islands has stayed flat (low amplitude, elongated cyclonic swirl), fast-moving, and it's convection has puffed out overnight. based on presentation it is doubtful that it can do anything. still lots of rain near the east coast, with a stewing offshore convective complex. i think another very weak low is possible near the east coast as the week progresses.
eyes turn to the eastern atlantic now. globals still develop the emerging wave going into next week. bastardi is already suggesting that it may approach the continent in the extended period, so i'm definitely interested. has a long way to go to be anything, though.
HF 1640z28june