hmm.. didn't check the 2-day recon plan of the day. why a recon today appears only in the 2-day (when the system will be moving onshore by tomorrow) is baffling, but i got my info wrong. contradictory information does that to me.
latest visibles have a small cdo/central dimple feature appearing. if i'm reading it correctly, this thing is spinning up rapidly, and may well end up being more than a minimal system. pretty sure it's a tropical storm now, based on appearance and some of the obs scott is monitoring. so... perhaps it will be bret after all.
elsewhere in the basin, nothing pressing. wave nearing the islands is skidding along at manic pace, its cyclonic signature getting smeared (even though the trough ahead will enhance its convection some). lots of rain up the east coast but nothing tropical trying to go in it. wave near the african coast will be the next spectacle, as the globals are showing their support with consistency. whether the pattern will carry it all the way across is a fuzzy topic. ssts don't warm enough for anything to really get going until past 40w, so anything that swirls up will more than likely get the islands. whether there's a weakness in the ridge off the east coast or not is an ambiguous signal in the models. considering that trough splits are occurring every 10 days to 2 weeks, it's probably overdoing whatever troughiness is shown, but that's not a slam-dunk conclusion. joe b already wants to bring it all the way across, which i have some faith in. will be able to form a firmer opinion near the end of the week.
HF 1935z28june