the max fl wind recon snagged was 40kt.. ohhh great. so really what we have is tropical storm bret. 10% reduction yields 36kt or about 41mph... they're definitely playing conservative.
rabbit my take is.. just what the nhc will probably say in the their advisory. the system will move onshore on a section of coast south of tampico that runs sort of diagonal to the track.. probably around 2am. it may or may not be ranked a tropical storm at landfall, because the nhc may or may not choose to call a tropical storm a tropical storm.
HF 2302z28june