eyeballed joe b, checked steve's commentary.. noticed some new stuff in model runs.. yeah, this is going to be an interesting weekend.
steve's playa is very large and it's tilted longitudinally. makes me think it is developing too quickly in the models and tracking too far north. it will probably start to go friday or saturday.. my reckoning is that it's best chance to catch the trough is to develop sooner. as for the trough, the models are consistently showing recurvature on it. as we've got good support for the playa to get its act together, the timing, organization rate, and latitude of whatever consolidates will figure big in where this sucker could end up. that trough will also be splitting when the playa is bearing down on it, so it may charge right into it rather than sweep out to sea ahead of it. both euro and gfs are recurving it though, so there is more confidence in that scenario at this point.
the forerunner.. something i'd been moderately interested in but ignoring.. is that wave near 65w, which the swiveling tutt has blown up to have a monster signature. i hadn't noticed the euro toying with it near the yucatan over the weekend... bastardi pointed that out and steve has added his two cents worth. just recently noticed that nam is developing a low over the weekend in the northwestern caribbean.. it divides the upper trough out and has the backing along the pacific itcz pressing into central america again. got to watch the models to see if they keep seeing lowering pressures near the yucatan over the weekend.
there's an outside chance that a low develops in the trough strung over the southeast u.s., but low probability it could significantly develop. it's nature would be dubious at best.
bret is still well structured in spite of coming ashore as a tiny system. bastardi has alluded to it having been stronger based on signature.. i was thinking the same thing myself. will be interested to see the post analysis and any surface reports from its landfall point (tuxpan and tampico should have some interesting pressure and wind data).
anywho... active june about to transition into an active july.. i think.
HF 0051z30june