>>But my question about NRL classifications still is there.

It's for an upcoming test per University of Miami's Derek Ortt. I asked the same question, he said it was a test.

The 2 in 10 shot you guys have listed is probably accurate. But I'm betting that graph creeps up within 48 hours. The convection and the wave are starting to bust through the shear from the TUTT which (to me at least) now appears to be cut off from its earlier source. A shortwave (which actually looks more like an ULL) has alread passed the northern edge of the TUTT which should pretty much continue to stretch and become a non entity until the next one forms. Once the wave action gets beyond that shear zone, it's anyone's guess. My early take is that this poses a potential threat to NE Mexico or the southern or central Texas coasts. We'll have to see.

Steve