sw carib feature has stolen the show as far as attention goes. globals have been tracking the moisture wnw into the western gulf by the middle of next week.. if development occurs along the way the pattern would be such that it turns north and hits the u.s. (louisiana or something), so definitely worth watching. 11pm two mentions that the system will be in a favorable environment... i'd watch for the itcz like surface trough north of panama to turn up a small low on the wave axis as it advances. there's already induced vorticity in the atmosphere as the convection has been kicking down there all day.. i'd say that in that scramble we'll see a low pressure are develop near san andres island tomorrow.
wave near 40w.. it's large and diffuse, but very good signature still and low pressure trying to develop in the sw-ne oriented atmospheric turning. as the system gets near 45-50w water temperatures are much warmer; i'm thinking that a discrete surface low will form out of this wave some time saturday. think this system will organize slowly and not go north of the islands and turn up at 60w as the models had been doing for days.. but stay weaker and further south.. and be with us for days to come.
gfs showing more suspicious features past the current wave.. tis the season.
HF 0432z01july