There's no surface reflection yet, and the 850mb vorticity analysis doesn't show a whole lot there yet, either. Wind shear is low and getting lower -- tendencies are strongly lower -- and, of course, as long as it stays away from the west coast of the Caribbean Sea, it's in some of the warmest, deepest waters in the basin. Aiding the convection is an area of diverging winds aloft to the east of the upper-level ridge building across the region.

Might see an invest on it tomorrow if current trends continue, but you also have to factor in that we are into the nighttime hours where convection tends to fire in the tropics due to the nighttime convective maximum. Weakening upper low near Belize and departing upper-low northeast of Puerto Rico should help outflow a little but have negligible impact otherwise. I might give it a bit higher than a 2 now, but remember -- there wasn't a whole lot when the post was written, and it's certainly not for-sure that we get something there.

As an aside -- any development we might see out in the central or eastern Atlantic is likely going to be hindered by a fair amount of mid & low-level dry air over the next few days, as is present now and forecast by the models to be there. Get it to about 50 W and you might see something, though. Heat content has been pretty high in that region most of the early season, though not quite as much so now as it was a week or so ago. Don't see much reason to go against HF's reasoning above.

Anything that gets going in the Caribbean -- or doesn't, for that matter -- should follow a path similar to Bret, perhaps with a bit more of a northward component as it moves into the Gulf.

Bottom line: check back in the morning to see what happens. It's got a shot, as does anything this time of year down there (and I'm not going to write anything off this time around), but until it can stick together and become a bit better organized, it's just another convective "blob" to watch.