danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Jul 01 2005 06:33 AM
Southwest Caribbean

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION (edited)
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT FRI JUL 01 2005

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 25N/26N THROUGH SUN...THEN SHIFTING N TO AROUND 28N MON AND TUE. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN AFTN.
THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SLY FLOW W OF 95W SAT NIGHT AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OVER W TX. FRESH E TO SELY FLOW RETURNS TO SRN GULF S OF 25N EARLY MON MRNG...SPREADING TO N GULF EARLY TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E FROM SW ATLC. SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT COVER ENTIRE GULF BY TUE EVE.
A FEW OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE FSU MM5 SUGGEST A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AROUND MON...POSSIBLY TRIGGERED BY A TROPICAL WAVE. NEITHER MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ECMWF...GFS/NAM...FSU MM5 AND THE
CANADIAN ALL SUGGEST A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN AND MOVING INTO THE SW GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH MON...BECOMING LESS DEFINED TUE.

full discussion at following link
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml?