danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Jul 02 2005 06:58 AM
Re: Southwest Caribbean

Whoa there! Don't go so fast. Here's the discussion from:
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 631 AM EDT SAT JUL 02 2005 (edited~danielw)

..SOUTHEAST
WITH VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH...ALL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE CARRIES A TROPICAL SYSTEM NWD EITHER NEAR OR ONTO THE CTRL/ERN GULF COAST THIS PERIOD. THE NAM/GFS ARE AT OPPOSITE ENDS OF THE SPECTRUM HERE...WITH THE NAM CURIOUSLY OFFERING THE MOST AMPLIFIED OF THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER MODELS. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER FL AND THE ERN GOMEX SHOULD PROMOTE A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE NAM...FELT ITS STRENGTH MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...CHOSE TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE CAN GLOBAL WHICH OFFERS A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE NAM...BUT IS LESS INTENSE. REFER TO THE NHC OUTLOOKS FOR THE LATEST INFO REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL STORM.

http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.fxus04.KWBC.html



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