globals got bored with that east atlantic wave. it's still out there, still amplified; even has a small (nowhere near the overall low level vorticity it had a couple days ago, though) surface low. convection has been very sparing, though. the wave envelope was also large, and sort of disjointed. they still track it west into the caribbean, but it isn't shown developing much (although the amplification remaining on the wave makes it implicit that it could develop given the right atmopsheric profile). i still think it can do something, but my development over the weekend theory from earlier isn't holding much water.. not much at all.
doing a little better so far on the western caribbean wave. that surface low i'd envisioned isn't there either, but there is a broad, slow gyre at the low levels, adequate to extensive convection, and a good and improving environment aloft. i'm fairly sure this will develop over the next few days and make a run at the central gulf coast (read louisiana) around wednesday.
one other thing of interest... there are small rumblings of mjo activity starting in the opposite hemisphere. it'll be a month before any of it shows up on our side of the world, but it may contribute to 'clustering' development at times this season.
HF 1631z02july