if i was in louisiana, i'd start contingency planning for a hurricane around wednesday. got a hunch that this thing will develop, cross the corner of the yucatan, and deepen significantly in the gulf early next week. can't go further than that.. do think that this is a named system inside 36 hrs. recon will probably fixing a center tomorrow.
as far as the system posing a threat to fla.. nah. 500mb ridge is building right over the state, weakness in the subtropical ridge axis will be 90-95w around the middle of next week. one of the shortwaves on the upper trough to the north will probably grab it and start it's recurvature around 27n or so.
as if it needed some criticism to show signs of life, the wave east of the islands is perking up today since my comments earlier. the sw-ne double-barreled profile it had last week is less strung out, and potentially going to focus on the convective v in the itcz that it's made. a vortex will probably start to tighten there, nearing barbados and the lower lesser antilles sunday. upper environment is ok, but a lot of saharan desert air in the area. it's broad and in a subsidence environment, so it won't spin up quickly if it does. unlikely we'll see anything out of this sooner than early next week. the models tracking the wave discretely as far as 80w makes me think it isn't going away.. even if it doesn't develop.
less prominent wave near 30w. eastpac disturbance south of the gulf of tehuantepec making a showing. active july pattern in the atlantic.
HF 2124z02july