QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 625 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2005 (edited~danielw)

DAY 3...
..GULF COAST LA/MS APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD SPREAD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.12Z NAM BRINGS HVY AMNTS INTO LA BY END OF PERIOD WHILE 12Z GFS TARGETS COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. MANUAL QPF SLOWED SYSTEM SPEED SOMEWHAT AND KEPT MAXIMUM INITIALLY ACROSS SE LA.

http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.fxus04.KWBC.html
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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 143 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2005 (edited~danielw)
VALID JUL 02/1200 UTC THRU JUL 06/0000 UTC

..TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE GOMEX
THE 12Z NAM IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH WITH THE 00Z RUN BUT CONTINUES TO MOVE THE WAVE MORE SLOWLY AS IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12Z GFS IS ALSO MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A WEAK WAVE INTO THE GOMEX AROUND THE PERIMETER OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
..TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE GOMEX
THE NAM REMAINS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS HAS MUCH WEAKER WAVE THAT ROTATES QUICKLY AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE 12Z UKMET AND CANADIAN BOTH LOOK MORE LIKE THE NAM THAN THE GFS...BUT NEITHER VORT MAX IS AS STRONG AS THE NAM. THE CANADIAN IS CLOSE TO THE NAM WHILE THE UKMET TAKES THE SAME DIRECTION BUT SHIFTED ABOUT 180 MILES EAST. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE RECOMMENDING A PATH SIMILAR TO THE NAM BUT NOT AS STRONG.
http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.fxus10.KWNH.html

All of these products are from previous model runs and are subject to change. Please consult your local NWS office for official forecast and advisories~danielw