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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2005 (edited~danielw) DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER INDICATED BY THE LAST RECON REPORT... WHICH ALSO INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB -- A DROP OF 2 MB IN 2.5 HOURS. RADAR REPORTS FROM THE RECON AIRCRAFT ALSO INDICATED SIGNIFICANT BANDING HAD DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE SHARP INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE COULD EASILY BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 30 KT...DESPITE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF ONLY 25 KT..MAINLY TO SEE IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 3 TO 6 HOURS. Entire Discussion at this link. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/040234.shtml |