danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jul 04 2005 04:07 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression #3 Update
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Quote:
Since the Panhandle is now in the NHC forecast cone. This statement below is a premature one. With the hard right turn called for, this should be watched in the northern half of the State. Not guaranteed to affect the state, but it is a possibility.
Link to updated NHC Forecast graphic:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/030130.shtml?5day
The "cone" that dem05 is refering to is the "Potential 4-5 day Track Area".
The "cone" has a very wide mileage error rate at 4-5 days.
...EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT3+shtml/040234.shtml?text
Text version of Strike Probablities for TD3 are also available on the NHC link, on the left side of the page, or here.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT3+shtml/