td 3 is now trekking onshore on the yucatan. shouldn't change a whole lot between now and re-emergence tomorrow evening. i'm of the opinion that the nhc intensity track is well below what we'll see.. and am going to stick with louisiana in general as my target. all the better if it gets the rural bayou country, because there's lots of stuff to break around beaumont and houston. i'm sure people in new iberia or morgan city don't like hearing that.. sorry. my target for now is cameron to grand isle with a focus around vermillion bay... tentatively a low range hurricane (though i have low confidence in the intensity). globals mostly bank the moisture from the system ene after going onshore... more rain working its way east to where we've already had our share (it's rained a lot not just in florida, but up the atlantic coastal plain).
away east the wave around trinidad is looking ominous. if a vorticity center from this thing gets clear of the south american coast.. expect trouble. the environment is modestly favorable.. a good convergent area is piling up east of trinidad on the back barrel of this wave, and it may clear just north of the island. all of the globals are tracking this thing in some fashion, either as a strong wave, spawning low pressure along it in the central caribbean within 48 hr, or waiting 3-5 days. gfs has the most ominous solution i've seen.. 00z brings a well-developed tropical system across cuba and the keys and up the western side of the florida peninsula late this week. there's logic in that, in that the mid level ridge which future cindy should sweep around will weaken, and whatever system is in the caribbean will migrate towards the lowering heights. coming up east or west of florida.. or even over to the yucatan.. dependent on how this system evolves any of these ideas hold water right now. all progs are dubious as long as the mass of the wave convection stays stuck to the south american coast, so lets hope it glides across and keeps low... that's the surest thing that can stop it from developing. however, i'm thinking this thing will develop at some point.. it's already delayed quite a bit on that note (early/mid last week expected it to be a classified system on saturday).
big chunky wave coming off africa.. and models flaring the weak wave in halfway across just a tad by late week as well.. lots going on for july.
HF 0726z04july