my best guess on t.d. 3 is that the strongest rotation at the low levels will shift to the northern part of the elongated circulation... not an uncommon occurence. the recon this afternoon will probably find that and the forecast track will shift to the right. all of that convection that is moving north over the gulf is probably just an associated disturbance (remember yesterday and the day before a large mass of convection was flaring around jamaica... probably just a weak disturbance that brushed by behind t.d. 3, caught in the deep layer flow. the forecast intensity i'll be ready to nail down this afternoon when recon gets in.. dependent on what kind of center they fix. if 3 has a disorganized core, a fight amongst mini-centers or that sort of thing.. then the globals will prove right and cindy will be weak and move more to the west. if cindy gets reorganized quickly and takes advantage of the very supportive conditions it will encounter for the next 48 hrs.. it will easily come in as a solid hurricane.... probably the middle louisiana coast.
steve-o's playa has some very scary model support right now. it seems that the low pressure associated with it has cleared the venezuela coast, so that non-development option is out.. all we've got working for us to keep this thing from getting going is plain ol' sluggishness or non-development in spite of supportive conditions. if this thing develops in the next 48 hrs, expect trouble. a consensus of models is tracking this system to the eastern gulf by the weekend. it doesn't necessarily have to happen.. this thing could be an earl rather than an ivan.
HF 1642z04july