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Should be Cindy in an half an hour, though the structure remains oblique in a moderately sheared enviornment. The steering regime is not complicated, with a trof lifting out over Mexico and a ridge building over Florida, and it seems like the trof has has had a more prominent effect on it, and subsquently the track will be shifted eastward. Most models support a storm landfalling in the vicicinty of the LA, with still some hitting Texas. The track seems to be a combonation of Bill and Claudette wtih Cindy treking in the middle. Intensity is tricky, based on the SHIPS and GFDL looks like a strong TS, but given the potential energy of 30 C water and given the fact that the trof is lifting out, all leads to believe that it could become a minor (less then CAT 3) hurricane at landfall. Details need to be worked out, but we still got time... |