Courtesy of Cooper, I am looking at the models. Some show it brushing the SW part of the state on its way to La. or east to the panhandle One shows it brushing the E coast of the state. I think you have to wait to see where the center develops, if one does, and then see how the models initialize it. One would think that the longer it takes to get its act together, the further west the likely path.

I will say that, if my assumption is correct that the larger the number of concentric rings around the center in the models, then the higher the winds and stornger the storm, there's one or two models that are particularly nasty.