dem05
(User)
Tue Jul 05 2005 01:01 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 4 Forms in Caribbean, TD#3 in Gulf

Colleen,
N.O. probably wasn't included in the watch at this time because of #3's poor structure, and it is not a TS. N.O. is somewhat inland. If the system was to become a stronger one, and promised to track a bit further east, I am sure the NHC would post a watch for them too.
Not to move on to the next. #4 has a lot more potential to be a formidable risk to people. Just remeber there is a forecast cone of error and that is what to watch.
On a final note, Tallahassee's Afternoon Discussion (LINK: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnation.php?pil=TAEAFDTAE&version=1 ) mentioned that the very busy 1995 hurricane seson (with and active early term) did not produce it's fourth system until July 30. It mentions concern that we a hyper ahead of schedule. Remember that season produced 19 systems, only surpassed by 1933 (with 21) and we are in a pattern more conducive for landfalls than 1995. Do not want to get the cart ahead of the horse from here, but it is something to think about.

P.S. Exact quaote in case link shifts with the issuance of a newer discussion:

.SYNOPSIS...BOY, IT'S TURNING OUT TO BE A BUSY EARLY SEASON IN THE
TROPICS. HERE IT IS ONLY INDEPENDENCE DAY, AND WE ARE LOOKING AT THE
THIRD TD OF THE SEASON ABOUT TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND
A VERY HEALTHY LOOKING TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH BOTH
CINDY AND DENNIS THIS WEEK. EVEN IN THE VERY BUSY 1995 SEASON, IT
TOOK UNTIL JULY 30TH FOR THE D STORM TO FORM. SSMI DATA AND RECENT
VISIBLE PIX INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TD 3 MAY HAVE REFORMED JUST
OFF THE NRN YUCATAN COAST. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED BENEATH A A VORT CENTER OVER ERN MS AND NWRN AL. A
CONVERGENT BAND WELL N OF TD 3 SPARKED SHOWERS OVER THE NE GULF AND
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA HAS WORKED STEADILY INLAND THROUGH THE
DAY, AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS
APPROACHING OUR OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORT LOBE EXTENDING NWD FROM TD 3.



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