as for t.d. 3... it seems to be doing its best isidore impersonation. remember isidore was that strong hurricane that had the gulf coast all worried the last week of september 2002, but beached itself on the yucatan and never rebuilt it's core. honestly think it's been a t.s. most of the afternoon/evening... recon will drop by in the next few hrs and confirm or sink this assumption. because of the relocation the steering mechanisms would tend to take the center further east.. but in the weaker state it's in the system will not recurve as easily. while the path is open further east now (ms/al), the core has to get reorganized for that steering mechanism to kick in. i don't know anymore... the yucatan crossing really knocked my ideas with this one off balance.
t.d. 4 has been officially christened. the nhc could have done it at five, but they played it down like they usually do. doggone thing looks like it's getting clear of the south american coast.. it'll spin up slowly for the first day or two.. but that intensity in the extended period nhc is advertising is definitely conservative. it has a bunch of islands to negotiate, and exactly how it does that will control the intensity and path to a degree. the nhc prog right now for track looks sound to me.
gonna be a long week coming up.
HF 0703z05july