Rabbit, strong west winds over Venezuela don't really mean a lot when it comes to development of a Caribbean storm...the primary factors for it developing after it moves away from the coast are the lack of proximity to tall mountains as well as the much warmer (and deeper) warm waters into the Central Caribbean. Waters near the coast, interestingly enough, are very shallow and not all that warm -- the immediate coastline, for that and the topographical reasons, is actually an area where tropical cyclones tend to come nowhere near their maximum potential intensity.

We've now got Dennis at 11a, 40mph/1006mb...Cindy is up to 50mph at 11a and does look a bit better organized -- but again lopsided, like Arlene. The NHC is playing it conservatively with Dennis, which is probably prudent given that no one is directly under its path for the time being. It looks rather impressive on satellite, but remember Earl from last year -- very similar presentation, but no closed circulation. There's one here, of course, and I imagine the wind speeds will probably ramp up at a good rate, but a lot of what you've been seeing is probably a mid-level representation that is just starting to work its way down to the surface.

More coming up around lunchtime...a lot to catch up on after a weekend away! Hope everyone's 4th went well...