Cindy continues to suffer from dry air entrainment on her west side with most of the heavy weather on her east side. A landfall at Louisiana's Mississippi River Delta sometime tomorrow morning as a strong tropical storm is probable but most of the bad weather will be felt in Alabama and the NW panhandle of Florida much like with Arlene.

As of 11:00 AM EDT we have T.S. Dennis and this is the earliest we have ever seen a "D" named tropical cyclone and right now we are on pace to see the busiest Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone season ever. He is on a WNW course at approximately 19 mph and should continue on the general course and speed for the next several days, as he moves around the southern and western periphery of the strong Bermuda high pressure ridge. Upstream wind shear is low and ocean water temperature warm so Dennis should become a hurricane within 48 hours and "possibly" a major hurricane within 72-96 hours.

Where will Dennis go? Only God knows right now for sure but looking at all forecast models only one hints at a weakness in the strong Bermuda high pressure ridge that would allow Dennis to strike South Florida from the SE and then recurve up the Eastern Seaboard. Right now the NHC TPC forecast track across western Cuba into the SE Gulf Of Mexico looks good. This track would only impact the southern Florida Keys depending on it's strength but would then endanger the Gulf Coast from Corpus Christi to Pensacola.

Bottom line for the Florida peninsula is that we look safe at the moment but a small shift to the right would endanger all of the South Florida region. Stay tuned.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Meteorologist & Space Plasma Physicist
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net

NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249

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