i got most of the cindy details fairly close. my hit point a couple days ago was around vermillion bay.. looks like it'll be grand isle instead. what is that, like.. 75 miles? beat the hurricane center at least. the pressure keeps dropping in spurts, so i might get the hurricane call right in the end. it'd be a double victory, cause my first hurricane guess date this summer was july 6th. whether it gets operationally upgraded or not, cindy will probably be set as a hurricane in post analysis, 'cause it's about as close as they come. lotsa rain on the way along the track and for points east. there's been a lot of rain on the coastal plain and piedmont areas from the carolinas south over recent weeks, but i don't think there will be more than widespread minor to moderate flooding, with the isolated variety severe weather as cindy moves inland and weakens.
i'm already very frightened by dennis. not because it's going to be a major hurricane and likely to hit the central gulf coast, but because i've already heard it called dennis the menace, and know we have a whole week to look forward to of every news outlet in existance calling it that to forced laughter. i think the hurricane center has done well with it since classification (late late typical late), as the intensity is well below what i'd have guessed from satelite. remind self that large envelope cyclones spin up slowly, have broad inner cores.. and our boy dennis moving quickly at that. it should spin up at a charley-esque rate, notwithstanding hitting jamaica or something it ought to be getting to major hurricane status closer to cuba. once it knocks poor fidel on his can, it's nw up to the central gulf coast. the 'cone' everybody talks about will end up being cedar key to houston.. i reckon. won't get to the coast until the 10th to 13th, but most likely area is the ms/al area where the official has it pointed, because all manner of forecast models like the idea. dennis hasn't done anything aside from exactly what was expected in it's short life.. until it starts defying those models we won't have much idea what else is at work. dennis will probably hit the u.s. as a hurricane. calling a major hurricane hit from this far out i'm squeamish about, because strong hurricanes find lots of unique ways to weaken as they approach land.. not always but often enough to merit attention. there's also the nagging thought in mind of allen and gilbert.. biguns that were also running under large ridges, that couldn't seem to find cause to recurve. climatology smacks a lot of july caribbean hurricanes into belize, the yucatan.. etc. if dennis starts sidestepping left that'll become a forecast contingency.
right now my strongest ideas are mainstream, though. hurricane, likely major at some point, possibly such at u.s. landfall. most likely area to get hit.. northern/central gulf coast. timeframe of u.s. impact centered around july 11th/12th. interesting of note is the gfs tendency to move the storm wnw after landfall and stall it over the plains, cut off from a poleward escape. that would be a horrific flood scenario... way out beyond reasonable prediction, but not something i'm very excited to notice.
better shut up before i write a book. busy times in july are at hand.
HF 0153z06july