berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Jul 05 2005 09:23 PM
Where Dennis is Going?

There is no forecaster who can accurately predict where Dennis is going beyond 72 hours. Remember Cindy's original forecast at 1st becoming a depression. She had a date with TX-LA coast. There are variables in the global models that cannot be predicted in the here and now; the main variable during this forecast period is the upper ridge over the SE USA and it's strength as Dennis approaches Cuba. If you were to believe the GFS yesterday, out one week, Dennis looks to have a date with TX-LA; but if there is any weakening of the upper ridge, then Dennis will turn more north and east sooner, and right now, we don't know. Tropical systems being warm core wreak havoc on the upper air and induce dynamics that can't be foreseen too far in advance. I don't see anything to impede Dennis becoming a hurricane with the exception of how Dennis interacts with the land masses in it's circulation envelope, and it remains to be seen whether it will cross Cuba or not. With every model run, things change. The Tampa meteorologist or weather caster or whatever he is, is premature at best at this time.


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