the discussion wasn't available yet, but saw that red (cat 3) forecast point near western cuba on the wunderground storm track... it's abnormal for this time of year, but that storm track looks sound given the synoptic picture. somebody around here who likes to put category fives in mobile bay is probably wanting that cone to aim someplace else right now.
cindy didn't get the hurricane nod. there's some decent supportive evidence for it having briefly been there this evening; perhaps it will be post-analyzed as such. worked for gaston. track is veering right now... most of the weather is from new orleans southeast across the delta marshes; mississippi coast will be getting the whole blustery/driving rain business until after sunrise tomorrow. by early or mid afternoon cindy will be down to depression status, and what the accuwx guys are calling tropical rainstorm cindy. probably rain a bunch here thursday... al/ga get it tomorrow.
dennis will probably be a hurricane tomorrow afternoon. there isn't much climatology for storms doing what this one is doing in july.... cat 4s and 5s are extremely rare prior to august, so nobody's willing to front the idea that it goes up into that territory. dennis is slowing down some, though... i think the cdo is going to stay put now. by the time it gets to cuba, i'd expect the central pressure to be 950mb or lower... with an august or september storm that looks like dennis does. we're going to find out if the same logic applies to a storm during early july. better hope cindy has left a good upwelled streak across the central gulf, because there isn't a great deal of land to weaken dennis along the way in, and the models imply smooth sailing in terms of atmospheric conditions.
HF 0426z06july