Clark gave a great explanation. He is right, but I feel with forcasting these things is size doesnt matter of a storm. Examples are Mitch and Gilbert. Gilbert was large and stayed WNW ( although they didnt expect a florida hit but did think it was going to Tx or LA) and Mitch, well we all know that he was suppose to go NW into the Gulf then turn NE and maybe hit florida or just skim it thru the key and the Bahamas. It went not only w but ssw before the turns weakning over the hills of Central America.
Thing I look for are strength and position of ridges. That determines the flow. They dont go poleward no matter how big or strong they are. Its based on many things which clark did describe. Main thing is troughs eroding and changing the FORMAT of the shape of the RIDGE. Currently its almost a e-w ridge and extends into the eastern gulf. A shortwave currently coming down near Cindy combined with Cindy wake ( weakness over the central and northern gulf) will erode the ridge. How will the Ridge take shape? Thats the question the NHC and mets want to know. Stewart was right on with that. We expect the ridge to get squashed and slide se some over the bahamas and have a NNW-SSE shape, possible N-S by Friday. By then where is Dennis? Havana? south of there? By later in the weekend Sunday (abouts) expect the ridge to try to move back towards South Florida and taking Dennis due N then eventually NNE or NE thru Georiga maybe?
What do I think???? Well All I know is like most have said,,,,we dont. We do think that he will be near Havana and Keywest by Friday sometime.
Lets not forget Bonnie... she showed us the flow was more ENE then NNE direction the flow was,,, but the models didnt show that and showed Charlie moving due N..he went NNE-NE. Her weakness erroded the NW part of the ridge over the Bahamas. So timing of Cindy and the shortwave of how long it stays will determine of much the the ridge is squeezed and pushed. That will drive Dennis.

scottsvb