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This is available in it's full version on the Main Page. I am posting it here to give those that might skip the Main Page the same information. (I would rather not have to post it at all. But this gives us ample planning and preparation time to do what has to be done. Please prepare...just in case.) TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS. THERE ARE PLENTY OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND AFWA ARE 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. OBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.0. SO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF DENNIS. IN FACT...DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF 20 KT BELOW AVERAGE WIND SHEAR...AS INDICATED IN THE EXPERIMENTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION PRODUCT PROVIDED BY NOAA/CIRA. IN ADDITION...BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION. THE LATTER BRINGS DENNIS TO 121 KNOTS AND 935 MB...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL BUT CALLS FOR A MAJOR DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THERAFTER...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UP TO 72 HOURS...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE AND ONE GROUP SHOWS A TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE OTHER AN EARLIER TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/060305.shtml |