Currently he has jogs from a 270dg-300dg overall its been near 285dg. The Nam is out for the 12z run and it shows a shift to the east with landfall near miami in 72 hours. Although this isnt reliable and I dont think it will hit there, it shows a continued trend to the east by 50-100miles from the 6z. When they dont use the GFS they use the Nam for forecasts at the NWS. I think the Nam is off but dont know how much.
The NHC forecast hasnt changed and is the same as before. The 5pm forecast will be a change cause of the 12z models unless they show the same as the 0z runs.
I also did a post up on why larger storms dont mean they will pull poleward or create their own Envir. Look at Mitch and Fran ( or was it Felix from dew years back,, I cant remember) that did things different. Mitch went SSW and Fran was soo big that she still couldnt move due west into florida.
Basically its the shape of the RIDGES and the flow around them. The troughs and shortwaves dont really pick up these storms but cut into the ridges and slide them one way or another. So in all, this shortwave coming down with the extended weakness from Cindy will do what to the ridge in shape,,, and where will it slide it?