I just watched the ABC Action News here in Tampa and the forecaster gave the best explanation I have heard yet! Here's the major points:
1. The track HAS shifted slightly to the east - at 5:00AM they were showing it going into Mobile. At 11AM, it was Pensacola. He made a point of showing the 5:00am track and comparing it to the 11:00am track.
2. He said that there is a trough moving down from the (what looked to me) part of the west...then he said that if Dennis slows down, that trough would push the High Pressure Ridge to the east, allowing Dennis to come closer to us.
3. Just like ftlaudbob's post from his local NBC affiliate, the entire state of Florida is now in the cone...this is also different than it was this morning and yesterday.
4. He said: "The continuing trend to the east is something that we all need to pay attention to, so those of you who haven't done so already need to get your hurricane kits prepared."
5. He also said that this track also reminded him of Charley's track last year and that "I certainly hope that does not happen again."

People have been accused of "wishcasting" here; I am not wishcasting, I'm reporting what I'm hearing from the local mets and I am staying with my stance that if the eastward shift - no matter how minute or small - continues over the next few days, Florida will have a problem on their hands.