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Model runs really are vascillating all over the place, while the NHC track is sticking to the east side of most of the guidance. Last night's 00z FSU MM5 took to storm into Tallahassee, quite a bit of an eastward shift. The 06z GFDL was in the same area as well. The 12z Canadian is even further east, taking the storm up the west side of Florida (very fast, I might add), which cannot completely be discounted as the model has done well this year to date. By contrast, the 12z GFS and UKMET are both presenting a doomsday scenario for New Orleans. The 00z NOGAPS -- and most of the other models -- are somewhere in between.

What does it all mean? We really don't know where the storm is going to go, but we can likely pin it down away from Texas now. Other than that, anywhere from Louisiana to the Keys is still very much under the gun, and we won't know a lot more until the storm get closer to land and the surveillance aircraft gets out there to give us some extra data for ingestion into the models.

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