Clark
(Meteorologist)
Wed Jul 06 2005 07:19 PM
Re: major shift west in most models

Without stealing SkeetoBite's thunder, you'll likely see something like that -- projected rainfall amounts -- with the new suite of maps they are working on. I don't think you'll be disappointed!

With regards to an eye -- wouldn't be surprised; recon out there found an eyewall of 30 mi., open on the NW side (not surprising). Also found a pressure of 989mb...suggesting the intensity is about what the NHC has said. Might be a satellite artifact right now, but I imagine we'll start to see one once Dennis is done ingesting dry air.

On track uncertainty/certainty: probably by Friday, we'll have a better idea of where it is going. By then, SE US NWS sites should be lauching 6hrly upper-air observations, and Saturday's 12z model runs should have the upper-air surveillance data from ahead of the storm in them as well (if not another set of runs before then). Just it moving closer to the US should narrow the cone somewhat.

On the African wave: too early to be watching it, in my view, with Dennis on our hands (and Cindy still around, dumping a lot of rain and spawning some isolated tornadoes). Waters are warmer than normal out there this time of year, but still a little too shallow with the warmth until you get to about 45-50 W (or stay south of 10 N) for anything to really get going. Worth watching down the line, but not now.

On track shift if south of Jamaica: I wouldn't go so far as to say that, really. Remember what Charley and Ivan were forecast to do and did: forecast to cross/move along the north side of the island, yet approached it and were shunted just south of the island. Terrain likely played a role in both cases. However, it did not play a significant role in the final track of the storm, as there were compensating factors in both cases that made up for it. It's something to watch to see if it persists after it passes the island -- assuming it passes south of there, of course -- but nothnig to hang your hat on, in my opinion.



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