Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Jul 06 2005 04:13 PM
Re: major shift west in most models

From NWS MLB AFD

"IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THE INHERENT ERRORS THAT OCCUR THIS FAR
OUT IN FORECASTING TRACKS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE OPERATIONAL GFS
TAKES THE SYSTEM WELL TO OUR WEST INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX. HOWEVER...
THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE EXHIBITING A LARGE AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY WITH
ONE PERTURBATION SUGGESTING A TRACK AS FAR EAST AS THE BAHAMAS.
REFER TO STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE
LATEST OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION."

I don't think anyone will know where this system is going until the air sampling missions send in new data to be fed into the models.


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