The storm does appear to have turned more towards the northwest, but that could partially be an artifact of the convective reorganization that has been ongoing for a few hours. The way it has redeveloped gives credence to the idea of dry air entrainment off of the coast of Hispaniola; now that it is nearer to the west side of the island, it is feeling such impacts to an increasingly less degree. The overall size of the storm does appear to have gotten a bit bigger today, giving credence to it turning a bit further north (to a simplified degree) if for no other reason.

I still do think it'll be a close call for Jamaica -- north, south, or over the island. Any scenario is likely, but I think whatever happens will even itself out in the end. A path over Havana looks pretty likely as well, though the intensity remains up for debate. Future track is where things diverge...and truth be told, I'm more willing to go with mesoscale models right now than the global models, as the former are more likely to capture the small-scale features that will play a huge role in influencing the track of Dennis more accurately. Nevertheless, other than shifts in the GFDL and, to a lesser extent, the UKMET today...most of the models have been pretty consistant in their runs throughout the day today. That doesn't bode well for predictability, because it'd be nice to see only a few of them do so and the others come closer to them instead of seeing a 300+ mile spread between the solutions in 4.5 days.

Bottom line: we still don't have much of an idea of where it is going. We will know more in a day or two, we hope, but may not be able to pin down a specific area for another 2-3 days.

More later...