| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 06 2005 08:16 PM |
Re: Interesting post from Storm2K
|
Quote:
I just read a post by Steve in Storm2K.... FOX 8 weather uses a model program called Vipir, I am not that familiar with it, but I know it nailed Cindy's track 2.5 days out... Steve also mentioned it did very well last year with Ivan, and was accurate on both Arlene and Bret earlier this year.... for what is worth, and probaby not much this far out, it's latest run has Dennis impacting just west of NO... similar to a Betsy track.... as a side note, it was reported by Bob Breck, weather Guru at Fox 8, that he had friend at the NHC that said Dennis could be a Cat 4 at landfall... if this comes to fruition, and I'm not saying it will because I have no idea where Dennis is going, it would be very similar to another Georges 98 track, but only a lot stronger, and perhaps a worse case scenario for N'awlins... Steve, if your monitoring the board please feel to comment on the Vipir, and its track on Dennis...
I know a little about it....I helped design parts of it...LOL.
The VIPIR model is a custom version of the MM5 with different physics and convectiive initation, and it outperformed pretty much everything on Charley last year, and did a pretty good job on some toher storms, but missed some as well...It is pretty good, but I wouldn't use it exclsuively...it is guidance, just like the rest of the modelling is. However, I can tell you that it doesn't call for a landfall west of NO, cause the model doesn't run out that far. It does HINT at it (if you extrapolate) but it doesn't have a landfall forecast. In addition, the previous runs have been back and forth with the tracks just as the rest of the modelling has been.