Quote:
A statement here from Accuweather regarding the models
"The North American Regional model (NAM) takes Dennis into south Florida early Saturday morning and the Canadian model shows Dennis hugging the west coast of Florida then moving northward. These two models seemed to catch the strength of the Atlantic ridge at times much better than other computer models. So, we can't discount these solutions just yet."
Much of the western Florida coast remains in the cone of uncertainty as of 5pm, so i am not ready to write it off either.
I wouldn't write off the west coast of Florida as Denis Phillips apparently did on local ABC Tampa station tonight. The FSU MM5 (mesoscale model) has been pretty consistent during its 00Z and 12 Z runs today - keeping Dennis running north along 84-85 deg W - which puts this large storm dangerously close to the entire west coast of FL. It's interesting that both Clark and Ed (FL Central METs) are in some agreement that the global models may be overplaying the strength of the ridge - the FSU MM5 model may be picking up more local pertubations in the pattern, suggesting a closer track to the peninsula
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Re: accuweather