| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:56 AM |
Re: Wishcasting or Fearcasting
|
Quote:
Scott,
If Jamica is in the middle of the projected path,and it goes north of Jamica,they would have to change the cone to the east.Sorry, but to me that is just commen sence.
It might appear to be common sense, but in reality this is not the case...
Ivan was forecast to cross Cuba and Jamaica, but as we know it jogged more south and missed them both...however, this didn't affect the eventual final forecast, as the models that 'missed' the south jogs still got the final idea correct. Missing Jamaica to the south doesn't necessarily mean a more westward track, just as moving north of Jamaica doesn't mean a more northerly track on the whole.