danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 02:00 AM |
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Average NHC Atlantic Track Forecast Errors
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From the NHC pages.
Average Errors listed in nautical miles (nm.) 2000-2004
120 hours 273.8nm
96 hours 208.0nm
72 hours 166.9nm
48 hours 113.3nm
36 hours 88.0nm
24 hours 63.0nm
12 hours 36.3nm
00 hours 6.8nm
This is only to give you an idea of how narrow, or wide the "Cone of Certainty" is.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml?