Thanks for the insights--although I have to admit I only understood a bit of the technical language. Perhaps I can ask a few questions about the particulars later. Let me put this a different way. In the case of storms that "blew up" suddenly such as Andrew or Charlie--before landfall--did mets figure out ex post facto what led to such events? What I'm trying to figure out is why intensity forecasts lag behind even the the tricky forecasts for landfalls.