right, it is just a wobble. the only thing that has really changed is that dennis is feeling the effects of mountainous island terrain.. something it previously hadn't. this may be the start of one of those type of track jerks charley and ivan made around jamaica. neither of those did much to alter the future track of either storm. one thing that has changed overnight is that guidance has shifted back to the right side.. but it's pretty much staying within the envelope that has existed all along. the major model members are staying close, keeping the track over western cuba and along a 300 mile stretch of coast centered near mobile. the storm may be having its organization process staggered this morning as well, since the eyespot overnight has blinked out and the convective signature on IR is less defined. it's probably about as intense as the nhc is calling it.. concur that it may get to a low-end 3 as it grazes or passes over jamaica.
the number of model members that stalls dennis over the mid-mississippi valley mid-late next week also troubles me. if dennis slows down and meanders once onshore it will present a tremendous flood threat.
model output and african wave appearances make me think another tropical cyclone will try to organize east of the islands over the next week, also. attention will be glued to dennis regardless.
HF 1335z07july