| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 07 2005 12:57 PM |
|
Re: FSU Superensemble
|
I have my own non-technical theory over the lag in intensity forecasting. Avoiding widespread panic is a major factor in determining intensity forecast. I believe raw data is virtually ignored at times in favor of "keeping the peace."
While they urge calm, evacuation, etc. They don't necessarily like to advise us that a cat 2 is likely to become a cat 4 within a couple of hours. I don't believe this affects the trajectory forecast, but do believe in greatly impacts the official intensity forecasts.
This is strictly my opinion after having watched the news media and compared it to the actual raw data on hurricanes since 1992. They often don't match up.
-Bev
Quote:
<snip>... In the case of storms that "blew up" suddenly such as Andrew or Charlie--before landfall--did mets figure out ex post facto what led to such events? What I'm trying to figure out is why intensity forecasts lag behind even the the tricky forecasts for landfalls.