Can't really comment on the FSU Superensemble; generally the best representation of it is given by the NHC official track, so if you are interested in that, watch the official track and 6hrly discussions for anything there.

Our MM5 is sticking to its guns, shifting ever-so-slightly east in this morning's run. I'm still in line with the general NHC thinking on this storm -- the right side of the model guidance is more likely to see this storm than anything else. I haven't narrowed down the overall cone, however, to anything narrower than central Louisiana to Tamp; that may change later today, including including more of the west Florida coast of the guidance still indicates and the observations still suggest a more easterly track.