hurricane_run
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Jul 07 2005 11:30 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches up For Keys, Tropical Storm Watch For Southern Florida Dennis

from the disscusion. full at the home page. FIXES FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT THE
MOTION HAS BEEN MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DENNIS IS APPARENTLY WEAKER
THAN EARLIER PREDICTED. THIS MAY IN PART BE A RESULT OF ADDITIONAL
STEERING FLOW INFORMATION OBTAINED FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET
SURVEILLANCE MISSION LAST NIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY...SOME OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS...HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE RIGHT OF THEIR EARLIER SOLUTIONS. THIS NECESSITATES AN
EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...THE
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT DENNIS HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE WIND
FIELD HAS EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NEW TRACK
AND WIND FIELD FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME.



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