It may be true that they get their temps from the shallower waters. Dick Fletcher said last night that in the 20+ years he's been here, he's NEVER seen the Gulf temperature at 91 degrees.
I'm not yet ready to say that the track won't shift back towards the left, however, when the models begin to trend to a certain place over a number of days, it's a pretty good indication. Even if it just HUGS the western peninsula of Florida, those temperatures are going to be a problem. And if it does go over the more moutainous areas of Cuba, it may have time to regroup and explode IF it hits those temperatures.
Notice there's a lot of IFS in there.